Three things to watch
1. Last-second showdown. In a scenario that could only happen in 2020, the second meeting in the history of these two programs was put together two days before kickoff after their scheduled conference opponents (USC and Fresno State) were sidelined by COVID-19. The Buffs won the first meeting 34-14 on Sept. 7, 2002, thanks to a big game from running back Chris Brown (29 carries, 185 yards).
2. Rusty Buffs? CU received an impromptu bye when last week’s scheduled game against Arizona State was lost to the virus. How long it takes the Buffs to shake off the rust against the Aztecs, who lost 26-21 to unbeaten Nevada last Saturday in Reno, could very well determine who comes out of Saturday’s game with the “W.”
3. MW mainstay. Thanks to the Rocky Mountain Showdown, the Buffs have faced a Mountain West opponent every year since the conference’s inception in 1999. They’ve fared pretty well in those meetings, too, going 17-10 overall. That record is padded with wins against CSU (14-7), however. Against the rest of the MW, CU is an unimpressive 3-3.
Who has the edge?
When SDSU runs
The Aztecs’ biggest strength on offense is unquestionably their ground game. SDSU is averaging 280.3 rushing yards per game (fourth-best in FBS), with senior Greg Bell the, ahem, bellcow at 565 yards and six touchdowns on 94 totes. While the Buffs have only surrendered 245 rush yards in a pair of wins, they are giving up 5.33 yards per carry. That will not get it done against SDSU.
Edge: SDSU
When SDSU passes
We’re a long way away from the days of Dan McGwire, Don Coryell and vaunted passing games of SDSU past. The Aztecs’ mostly ground-bound offense is capable of making big plays through the air, but usually only after establishing the run. Case in point: SDSU has only one more TD pass (4) than interceptions thrown (3). A still young-and-inexperienced CU secondary should hold its own.
Edge: Buffs
When the Buffs run
After submitting back-to-back 100-yard games against UCLA and Stanford in his first two collegiate starts, this much is certain about CU running back Jarek Broussard: the Texas native is the real deal. Now the sophomore faces a stiff test against an Aztecs defense that is allowing just 90.5 rushing yards per game. Nary a running back has topped the century mark against SDSU this fall. Can Broussard be the first?
Edge: Buffs
When the Buffs pass
Buffs quarterback Sam Noyer and receiver Dimitri Stanley have showcased a special connection through two games, with the Cherry Creek product hauling in six passes in both games for 192 yards. Noyer has been efficient overall, completing 63.6% of his passes for 512 yards and three touchdowns. The Aztecs’ secondary is no pushover, however, with its 152.3 passing yards allowed per game third-best in FBS.
Edge: SDSU
Special teams
Aztecs kicker Matt Araiza has been solid, if unspectacular, this season, hitting 6-of-8 field goals with none longer than 36 yards. Evan Price has been similarly effective since replacing James Stefanou. SDSU punter Tanner Kuljian (48.44 yards per punt) is a great field position weapon.
Edge: Even
Post predictions
Sean Keeler, columnist: CU 34, SDSU 30
During a season in which we’re literally making everything up as we go along (including the schedule), it feels like the only sure things in the world anymore are Sam Noyer karate-kicking some defender, the Buffs hanging 30 on someone, and the CU defense hanging on for dear life.
Matt Schubert, deputy sports editor: CU 24, SDSU 20
The Buffs have to invite a Mountain West team to Boulder to finally face a decent defense. Expect a challenge for Sam Noyer and Co., but the Buffs have just enough to outscore a one-dimensional Aztecs attack.
Kyle Fredrickson, beat writer: CU 38, SDSU 35
A fourth-quarter field goal gives the Buffs a 3-0 start behind another impressive game from quarterback Sam Noyer. CU’s bend-but-don’t-break defense does just enough for the win.
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