Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
Does Nolan Arenado want to win bad enough to forgo the money on his contract and opt out knowing his next deal (with presumably a winning team) would be significantly less?
— Marcus Farrell, Denver
Marcus, that’s the six-year, $199 million question. That’s what’s left on Arenado’s eight-year, $260 million deal.
As much as Arenado wants to play for a winner — and make no mistake, he desperately wants that — I don’t think he will opt out.
There are three main reasons.
One, that’s a huge amount of money for Arenado to give up, and you’re right, given baseball’s current financial environment, he’s unlikely to land another deal as lucrative as his current one.
Two, Arenado could still hope that the Rockies trade him once baseball returns to “normal.” Keep in mind that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract, so he could, theoretically, help steer the deal.
Three, Arenado’s baseball brethren would not look kindly on him turning down huge money. You have to keep in mind that the MLB Players Association is an important part of the equation. The players are a fraternity and when a player signs a mega-deal it helps the rest of the players. As Arenado debated signing the contract, he was in frequent contact with the MLBPA. The union’s input matters to him.
Players have opted out of big contracts before, but usually only for more money or a longer deal. Think of Alex Rodriguez’s deal with the Yankees. In December, 2007, A-Rod agreed to a 10-year, $275 million contract with the Yankees, a deal that only came about after he opted out of the final three years of his original 10-year, $252 million contract he signed with the Texas Rangers.
Do you see the Rockies getting a competent second baseman since they already have Josh Fuentes, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado? Also, do you see them getting another starter in the rotation with the inconsistencies that they have had?
— Gabriel Guerrero, Fort Lupton
Gabriel, I think the Rockies already have a “competent” second baseman in Ryan McMahon.
I still believe he has a ton of talent and I like his range and athleticism. Does he need to be more consistent? Yes. In 2020, McMahon committed seven errors over 248 innings for a .947 fielding percentage. In 2019, he committed 13 errors over 860 innings for a .972 fielding percentage.
McMahon also regressed at the plate. In 2019, he hit .250 with a .779 OPS while striking out 29.7% of the time. In 2020, McMahon hit .215 with a .714 OPS with a 34.2 strikeout percentage. He needs to rebound, but I think he will.
As for your question regarding a starting pitcher, I don’t think the Rockies will look outside the organization to add another starter. They are hoping that right-hander Ryan Castellani will take a big step forward. The same goes for Chi Chi Gonzalez. And there is a chance that left-hander Ryan Rolison will make his debut and be part of the 2021 rotation.
Rolison has yet to pitch above high-A Lancaster, but he pitched in college and has a good feel for his stuff.
Patrick, I saw that you talked to Todd Helton for your story on the Hall of Fame. I’m wondering how he is doing? We don’t hear much about him.
— Trevor, Greeley
Trevor, I did talk to Helton about his personal life. That conversation will remain between the two of us. But it’s no secret that he’s had some struggles, including two arrests for DUI, most recently in Knoxville, Tenn., in 2019.
Helton did tell me something -– on the record -– that I found very interesting.
“I thought I was ready to retire and all of that,” he said. “But if I had to do it all over again, I would have stayed in the game right after I retired. I would have stayed with the Rockies as a special assistant. It would have been a better decision. It would have given me some structure.”
Helton said he still has a close relationship with Rockies owner Dick Monfort. However, he said there are no current plans for Helton to rejoin the Rockies organization.
Was DJ LeMahieu a clubhouse leader? And is some of the last two years due to players’ unfavorable reactions to his not even getting an offer?
— Kenneth Bell, Greeley
Kenneth, LeMahieu was a clubhouse leader with the Rockies, but not in the traditional sense. He was by no means a rah-rah guy and he didn’t say much, but his teammates thought he was the toughest player on the field. He was a beloved teammate, no question.
Were some of his teammates upset when the Rockies did not attempt to re-sign him after the 2018 season? Most definitely. At the same time, they were thrilled that he found success in New York.
Having said all of that, the players’ reaction to LeMahieu’s departure is only a very small part of what’s gone wrong with the Rockies over the last two seasons.
I read your article concerning the Rockies ownership not doing an end-of-year question/answer session. I think that is a little childish on their part as it seems they do not want to be held accountable for the problems of the team. But my question has to do with the Rays and the way they do things. I asked you this question and you stated that you do not think that the way the Rays run things would work here. I have to disagree with that. Dick Monfort wants a player that he can advertise to get the people in the stands. The Rays do not have a player that is comparable to Arenado. What they do have is good starting pitching, a plethora of relievers, and decent fielders. If the ownership did it this way I think we would be a contender year in and year out. We do not need a face of the franchise here to put rear ends in the seats; a winning team would put more rear ends in the seats. Your thoughts?
— Del, Lamar
Del, first of all, I was disappointed that the Rockies decided not to talk to the media after the end of the 2020 season. I was told, repeatedly, that we would have a chance to talk to general manager Jeff Bridich about the state of the team. Then I was told that wasn’t happening until the Rockies had some news to announce.
As far as the Rays vs. Rockies scenario, I think you and I disagree on a number of points. For one thing, history has shown us that the Rockies are never likely to be able to pitch as well as teams at sea level. Yes, pitching is important to Colorado’s success but putting together a stable of pitchers as deep as the Rays’ would be very difficult at altitude. Free-agent pitchers, for example, are reluctant to come to Colorado. I think the Rockies need to find a balance between solid pitching and a dynamic offense. Right now, they lack both.
Also, keep in mind that the Rockies drew nearly 3 million fans to Coors Field in 2019 (36,953 per game) while the Rays drew just short of 1.3 million fans (14,734) to Tropicana Field. Central to Dick Monfort’s business model is drawing fans to Coors Field.
Given the statements about how hard the team has been hit financially this year, what is the likelihood that Jeff Bridich looks to ship Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and some starting pitching for an arsenal of future prospects, thus cutting the payroll significantly? This compared to keeping either of them and having another .500 team.
— Chris Ringwood, Denver
Chris, I don’t think the Rockies will trade both Arenado and Story. One, perhaps, but not both. And given that the club has control of German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland, at a reasonable cost, for the next few years, I don’t seem them trading their top three pitchers. Could right-hander Jon Gray be traded before he becomes a free agent after 2021? Yes, that a possibility.
The bottom line: I don’t see the Rockies doing a complete teardown and a subsequent rebuild.
I understand that the MLB owners meeting in Dallas is canceled this year. Will this meeting be held remotely, and how will this impact the offseason?
— Judy Frieman, Denver
Judy, you are correct, although it’s not the owners’ meetings but the annual Winter Meetings that have been canceled. The Winter Meetings had been scheduled for Dec. 7-10 in Dallas. Now, the interaction between teams’ front offices, agents and players will take place virtually. Increasingly, negotiations have taken place via texts, phone calls and Facetime on computers. Now we can add Zoom to the list. I honestly don’t think that not having the “convention” that is the Winter Meeting is going to change things all that much.
Ken Rosenthal noted in one of his recent articles that the Rockies are willing to accept major leaguers in return for a Nolan Arenado trade. They would like to compete and build around Trevor Story, rather than a package of prospects in return. Have you heard anything similar to this? I would imagine this changes the amount of suitors that will be reaching out to the Rockies.
— James, Denver
I agree with what Rosenthal wrote. But, as Rosenthal also noted: “The odds of such a deal happening aren’t good, particularly when teams might prefer to wait for a member of the Great Free Agent Shortstop Class of 2021-22. Then again, what choice do the Rockies have but to try? It would be foolish for them to trade Story and keep Arenado when they already know of Arenado’s discontent.”
The problem is, of course, the size of Arenado’s contract. He’s owed $35 million in 2021 and a total of $199 million over the final six years of his contract.
What do you think would be the fan reaction if Rockies management said the word “rebuild”? (I saw somewhere that the Rockies were last in team rankings at 30th).
— Ken Fonda, Greeley
Ken, I honestly don’t know what the reaction would be. My guess is that it would be split between those fans who think that a rebuild is definitely needed and those who believe that a couple of key players could turn the team around. The frustrating part of the quandary is that the Rockies don’t seem to be in a position to add key players.
It’s nearing time to make plans for the annual Scottsdale pilgrimage. Any word from the Rockies on fans at spring training?
— Jeff, Elizabeth
Jeff, you’re not the only one wondering if there will be traditional spring training, delayed spring training or no spring training at all. As it stands now, teams are targeting Feb. 15 as the opening of camps but much depends on the coronavirus and a possible vaccine.
As for fans in the stands, it’s too early to tell. I wish I had a more definitive answer for you.
Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
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