The Broncos have +50,000 odds — meaning a $100 bet would win $50,000 — to advance to the Super Bowl this year, according to oddsmaker BetMGM. The odds to add a fourth Lombardi Trophy to the display case? It’s +100,000. Both are tied for dead last.
To quote Lloyd Christmas, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Entering Week 14, Denver (4-8) is a long, longshot to make the playoffs. The AFC West title is out of the picture. The Chiefs (11-1) have a magic number of one to clinch the division and the Raiders (7-5) are the only ones with a shot at catching them.
Thankfully for the Broncos, the NFL expanded to three wild-card teams in each conference this season.
A lot of things have to happen in order for the Broncos to advance to the postseason for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50. Here’s a look:
1. Denver wins out.
The Broncos need four straight victories against the Panthers (4-8), Bills (9-3), Chargers (3-9) and Raiders (7-5) to finish the year at 8-8. Lose any of these games and the playoff bid is officially dead.
2. Kansas City (11-1), Pittsburgh (11-1), Cleveland (9-3) and Buffalo (9-3) need to make the playoffs.
The Chiefs have already clinched a spot. If any of the other teams don’t, it means nine wins isn’t enough for a wild-card spot and Denver’s eight wouldn’t be either.
3. Of the remaining teams who can still finish 8-8 or better — Raiders (7-5), Texans (4-8), Titans (8-4), Colts (8-4), Ravens (7-5), Patriots (6-6), Dolphins (8-4) — at most one can finish with a better record than .500.
With Pittsburgh and Cleveland in the same division, one of them has to be a wild-card team, leaving just two other wild-card spots. If two of the remaining teams finish better than 8-8, Denver’s postseason hopes are done.
4. Win the tiebreaker.
If it’s down to just the Broncos and another team, that other team cannot be the Titans, who own the tiebreaker after beating Denver, 16-14, in Week 1. The Broncos would have a 7-5 conference record if they win their final four games.
How the Broncos match up in tiebreaks against the remaining teams:
- Colts: Denver would win as Indianapolis would be 4-8 in conference play.
- Dolphins: Denver would win because of the Broncos’ Week 11 victory over Miami.
- Ravens: Denver would win as Baltimore would be 5-7 in conference play.
- Patriots: Denver would win because of the Broncos’ Week 6 victory over New England.
- Raiders: Denver and Las Vegas would split their season meetings. The Broncos (7-5 in the AFC) would win as Las Vegas would be, at best, 6-6 in conference play.
- Texans: Denver would win as Houston would be 6-6 in conference play.
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