Colorado State’s recent series-sweeping victory at San Jose State didn’t only push the Rams to double-digit wins. Nor did the convincing triumph merely help Niko Medved’s group maintain its two-game lead over Nevada for third place in the Mountain West.
CSU’s 10th victory of the young campaign also garnered the green and gold’s first slice of national recognition within the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion.
On Monday, CBS Sports expert Jerry Palm penciled the Rams in as a No.11 seed as part of his predicted bracket.
CSU has avoided mostly all potential hiccups while starting 10-2, and Palm’s inclusion constitutes a potential step toward the program’s first tournament berth since 2012-13.
Moving forward, the Rams’ bubble case largely hinges on how they fare during a grueling stretch of upcoming games.
Before hosting Boise State (12-1, 8-0 Mountain West) next week, CSU travels to face Utah State (11-3, 8-0) for games Tuesday and Thursday, both presenting opportunities to boost its March Madness profile.
Here’s a few keys heading into the pivotal set as the Rams look to upend the Aggies in Logan.
Tipping off with a bang
Though it hasn’t been the case in every contest thus far, CSU has made a habit of starting on the wrong foot.
Before the San Jose State series, the Rams owned a scoring margin of minus-18 through the first 10 minutes compared to plus-102 over the remaining three-quarters of each game.
Primarily because of the group’s established knack for battling back, slow starts have yet to sink CSU. The Rams even found a way to topple San Diego State despite falling behind by 26.
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The Rams happened to enjoy a pair of ideal starts in their wins at SJSU. We’ll soon learn whether those games represent an outlier or if CSU can carry its early-contest momentum into Logan.
With their regular season, league-title goals in mind, the Rams are surely hoping for the latter.
“I’ll take a win any way we can get it,” Medved said following Game 1 at SJSU. “But it’s always a little bit better when you can do it that way. When you can jump on them from the beginning and to be able to carry it through. But it’s basketball. They’re not all like that and you savor the times when it is. But it definitely makes it a lot easier for us. No question.”
No Containing Queta
After totaling 24 points and 18 rebounds in two victories over CSU last season, 7-foot center Neemias Queta continues upping his game to new heights as a junior.
The preseason All-Mountain West selection is currently leading the conference in both blocks (40) and field goal percentage (58.7).
With six double-doubles under his belt, Queta operates as the MW’s second-leading rebounder (9.4 per game) and the Aggies’ top scorer at 12.2 points per game. He also dishes out 3.1 assists and swipes 1.4 steals on average.
If the Rams somehow lock down Queta, they would be the first program to do so in 2020-21. But no need to worry. Besting the Aggies doesn’t require shutting down the towering center.
As long as the Rams key in on a few of USU’s complementary difference-makers, Queta can do his thing –– and the scoreboard may still favor the visitors.
Namely, 3-point shooting represents a rare facet in which the Aggies aren’t among the Mountain West’s best.
When guards Steven Ashworth and Brock Miller prove inaccurate, USU generally performs poorly from distance as a whole. Craig Smith’s team boasts a 6-3 record when Miller, the league’s third-leading 3-point specialist (39.3%), converts less than three triples. Similarly, Ashworth found nylon on less than two 3-point tries in all three of USU’s losses.
Still tough to beat, yes. But when Miller and Ashworth cannot contribute from deep, the Aggies are indeed beatable.
Adam “ThistleGOOD” at his best
It isn’t as if monstrous outings from one player alone can translate into a series sweep or split for the Rams. CSU must assemble balance in all phases at the Spectrum to snag a win or two –– which hasn’t been an issue for Medved’s roster.
Nevertheless, Adam Thistlewood’s offensive production could very well constitute an x-factor as the Rams clash with the MW’s top defense (59.3 points allowed).
Whether in transition or when running a set offense, CSU’s ball movement resides at the top of Medved’s list of priorities. Though Thistlewood still served extremely beneficially on both ends, this is partially why the junior has been a little quieter than anticipated in the scoring department –– averaging 8.8 points.
However, he took charge last Saturday and matched a season-high 16 points upon helping the Rams pull away at SJSU. Before that, Thistlewood’s last double-digit showing occurred when knocking down multiple shots down the stretch during CSU’s historic upset of SDSU.
Medved’s offense becomes extra potent when Thistlewood takes matters into his own hands, particularly from beyond the arc. And it’s no coincidence that CSU’s remarkable victories transpire simultaneous to Thistlewood catching fire. His last 20-point effort materialized during the Rams’ 92-91 win over Nevada at a packed Moby Arena last season.
CSU is waiting for Thistlewood to erupt like he did versus the Wolfpack last January. Considering his tendency of doing so when the stakes are high, perhaps he’ll lead the Rams in the scoring department at USU.
“I’m just waiting for this barrage where he goes 6-of-8 from 3 or whatever because I feel like he’s close,” Medved said after a Jan. 16 win.
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