Nuggets International Mailbag: Is Actually Dallas or even Portland much better first-round match?

Interesting piece by Mike Singer from The Denver Post discussing several important points for the week. Mike Singer recently posted this and I decided it was well worth publishing here.

Beat writer Mike Singer opens up the Nuggets Mailbag periodically throughout the season. Pose a Nuggets — or NBA — related question here.

Was it good for Michael Porter Jr. that Nikola Jokic needed a new second man after Jamal Murray got injured?

— Milos Crnogorac, Fredrikstad, Norway

I’m not sure if “good” is the right word, but the Nuggets are fortunate they had a player of Porter’s caliber waiting in the wings. It’s interesting to consider whether Porter has always had this capability — 25.4 points per game, 58% shooting, 50% from 3 in the 15 games since Murray went down — or whether it’s a function of him growing into his expanded role. I lean toward the former, which isn’t a knock on anyone’s role, it’s just a testament to how deep the Nuggets were before Murray tore his ACL. Denver didn’t need Porter to do what he’s doing now. Now it does.

What’s more, he seems more than comfortable as the team’s No. 2 scoring option. His 3-point shooting is one of the few tools the Nuggets have in keeping defenses honest. If Porter wasn’t connecting at the absurd rate he has, Jokic would be facing more double- and triple-teams than he’s ever seen. Porter’s emergence has been the silver lining to a devastating gut-punch amid a season with so much promise. If nothing else comes of this grueling season, at least the Nuggets learned exactly how valuable Porter can be. Aren’t you glad they didn’t trade him?

Why isn’t Aaron Gordon playing pick and roll? He is struggling to get points lately and it seems that Facundo Campazzo could feed him a lot!

— Gustavo, Mar Del Plata, Argentina

Gordon hasn’t played a lot of pick-and-roll with anyone, let alone Campazzo. Part of that is his 3-point shooting (27% since arriving in Denver) hasn’t been reliable, and he still looks like he’s searching for his spots on offense.

The Nuggets have made a concerted effort to run plays for him to start games, but Gordon’s offense is largely coming via isolation post-ups, transition chances and the offensive glass. At just 8.3 attempts per game, Gordon is averaging his fewest shots since his second year in the league. The Nuggets could badly use an offensive spark from him, considering the burden on Jokic and Porter heading into the postseason. In Gordon’s defense, his defense has been sound. If he can be the defensive stopper they need in a playoff series (Hey, Luka!), the Nuggets might be able to survive with his inconsistent offensive play.

Is there a lot to be read into Zeke Nnaji’s slide from even the extended rotation? Vlatko Čančar and even Bol Bol have seen playing time ahead of him recently. He looked very good at times earlier this year, especially as a shooter, and although Vlatko has shown a lot more in prime time minutes this year than in previous years, I’m completely shocked that Bol Bol is ahead of him in the rotation As a second question, how should we view Markus Howard’s significantly better shooting efficiency in primetime minutes versus mop-up time, albeit in a massively small sample size?

— Mathieu, San Francisco

Short answer, no. I don’t think Malone’s had a more difficult predicament during the second half of the season than dealing with the Millsap-Green-McGee musical chairs. I think Nnaji was a casualty of that frontcourt depth (not to mention, he’s recently been battling an ankle sprain).

The team is very high on Nnaji. Next season should be huge for him depending on what happens with Millsap (free agent), Green (player option) and McGee (free agent).

I’m glad you brought up Howard. Frankly, I hadn’t been impressed with the way he’s played in mop-up duty. Too often I’d seen him hoist a shot early in the shot clock with no consequence because the game was generally out of hand by that point. His play in the loss to the Nets was extremely encouraging, not only because he scored a then career-high 13 points, but because he showed he can be relied upon when the backcourt has been decimated. His career-high 15 points against Minnesota on Thursday night only underscored that confidence. His four 3-pointers tied for the team lead.

What’s the inside pulse on Portland vs Dallas as our first-round matchup? We’ve been better head-to-head with Portland recently, but they seem to be rolling right now.

— Michael Mondry, San Francisco/Aspen

Greetings, love your work Mr. Singer. I was just wondering who you consider the worst mismatch for our Nuggets when the playoffs roll around, and do you have any fears about particular Denver players being exploited without Jamal Murray and Will Barton?

 — Marko, Belgrade, Serbia

Denver doesn’t want to see the Lakers in the first round, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to. It’s far more interesting to dive into the Portland-vs.-Dallas question. On one hand, Denver’s 2-0 vs. the Trail Blazers this season and just 1-2 against the Mavericks. Dallas is tied (with Denver) for the best record in the NBA over the last 15 games (11-4). On the other, the Blazers have, by far, the best offensive rating in the NBA (120.4 points per 100 possessions) over that time span.

The question is: Would Denver rather deal with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Norm Powell against a depleted, albeit defensive-oriented, backcourt or would it rather take its chances against a generational talent like Luka Doncic? While I think the Nuggets would likely be favored in both series, the health of Kristaps Porzingis is a huge swing factor. Before Wednesday night, he’d missed seven consecutive games due to knee soreness.

Do you think Monte Morris will be a starter for the playoffs or continue to be the spark off the bench with the way Facundo Campazzo has been playing?

— Christian Messana, Staten Island

I think Malone is comfortable with Campazzo as his starting PG in the playoffs. Considering the rhythm Campazzo has found playing with Jokic, and Morris’ return from his hamstring injury, I’d be stunned if Malone reversed course and brought Campazzo off the bench. Leaving Morris in with the second unit also improves the reserves’ chances of scoring, which has been, um, difficult at times.

If tomorrow Denver had to face a Game 7 in Western Conference semifinals vs Utah, which players do you think coach Michael Malone will choose to finish a close game?

— Enrique, Florida, Partido de Vicente López, Provincia de Buenos Aires

There are a million factors, but there’s one common thread with Malone’s tendencies: You’re not on the floor in crunch time unless you can defend. I’ll go with Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Austin Rivers, and then two of either Facu Campazzo, JaMychal Green or Shaq Harrison. If the Nuggets need points, assume MPJ is in there. If they have a slight lead, I think Harrison may play the P.J. Dozier role from last postseason, assuming Dozier himself isn’t back yet.

Assuming relative health for everyone not named Jamal Murray (and possibly Will Barton), what do you expect the playoff rotation to look like? Will it be relatively the same throughout? Or do you expect Michael Malone to make big adjustments based on the opponent (such as getting Vlatko Čančar, JaVale McGee and Zeke Nnaji in vs. big teams like the Lakers, but not using them otherwise)?

— Brad Bonesteel, Westminster

Our playoff rotation should be something like: We start with Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers with forward line of Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic. For our first-round matchups, Monte Morris and Will Barton should be coming off the bench as they both get eased into playoffs. Shaq Harrison is a must due to his elite defensive ability. Upfront Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green should be our bigs rotational players. JaVale McGee can be used if and when matchups requires. P.J. Dozier should be available for later rounds which only boosts our chances for a first-ever NBA championship . Austin Rivers will be balling and gets a contract offer for next year too.

— Dragan, Sydney, Australia

I agree on starters. Keep them Campazzo, Rivers, MPJ, Gordon and Jokic. Morris and Barton add scoring off the bench, and I think Harrison will be a situational defender. The frontcourt will be matchup dependent. If it’s the Blazers, I think Millsap and Green have a much better chance of both being part of the rotations than if the Nuggets draw Dallas. The Mavericks have a lot of size inside with Porzingis, Kleber, Finney-Smith, Powell and Boban. In that series, just as in a potential Lakers series, I expect McGee to play. As Thursday night showed, a Jokic-McGee pairing can be devastating.

The Nuggets traded a young big and two seconds to acquire a backup center they’ve played a total of 121 minutes since he arrived. Now what?

— @andyglockner

It’s been curious watching Malone’s use of McGee. He might’ve been helpful, for instance, when Charlotte’s Cody Zeller was going off against Denver’s second unit earlier this week. McGee, a certified agent of chaos, makes the Nuggets infinitely more fun when he’s in. An interesting wrinkle about the McGee trade: At the time of it, a person close to the deal told me Malone had been the driving force behind the trade. He wanted better rim protection and championship experience. Keep in mind, it’d be a lot easier to stomach those two second-round picks if the team was fully healthy and could take their best shot at a championship. Playoffs are the ultimate truth serum. We’ll see how valuable Malone thinks he is in the coming weeks.

Can we expect Will Barton and P.J. Dozier back for the first game of the playoffs, or will they not return until later? And is the expectation that Monte Morris will be a full-go, with no minutes restrictions, by the playoffs?

— Thomas Ritchie, Leeds, UK

Any updates on how P.J. Dozier and Will Barton are progressing? Will we see them in the first round of the playoffs? Until then, do you foresee Austin Rivers continuing to start at the two or will we get more of the Paul Millsap lineups?

— Rod Rahimizadeh, Istanbul, Turkey

Any news on Will Barton and P.J. Dozier? Do you think they’ll be back in time for the first round? Also, what would be your guess at what the playoff rotation will look like, provided those two are healthy? Thanks and cheers from Croatia!

— Rea, Zagreb, Croatia

Don’t expect either Barton or Dozier back before the start of the playoffs. Both are on the mend, according to Malone, and Barton is much closer to a return than Dozier is. By the time Barton’s healthy, he’ll have missed nearly a month of action. The positive is that Barton does things that are harder to replace than Dozier does (because of Harrison). The negative is that Barton just seems snakebitten when it comes to being healthy in the postseason.

Do you think that the Nuggets are capable of winning the title this year without Jamal Murray (and maybe Will Barton and P.J. Dozier)? Hugs from a Brazilian Nugget.

— João Vitor de Barros, Osasco, SP, Brazil

In the 16 games since Murray went down, the Nuggets are now 12-4. That’s the best record in the NBA. Nobody, not even the Nuggets themselves, would’ve predicted that. They’ve got wins over numerous playoff-bound teams, including the Clippers and Knicks. They’ve proven they can survive on a steady diet of Jokic and Porter. Championship teams always say there’s luck involved, and the Nuggets have been anything but lucky the last month. Can they win a title this year? It would be more than improbable. So was coming back from two 3-1 holes. I think they still have the depth to make a serious run in the postseason, and the bracket, assuming it holds, has lined up as favorable as possible for the Nuggets.

I was wondering if you could explain more of what buying a G-League team means? Will the team move? Is the roster now a part of our pipeline? What changes for the Nuggets?

 — Greger P., Nashville

Appreciate the question. The G League team is staying in Grand Rapids, with no imminent plans to come to Colorado. What this means, though, is the Nuggets will now have a development squad running the same plays, using the same terminology, growing their prospects in the same manner as the parent squad. The Nuggets see it not only as a place to develop their players, they also see it as a place to develop coaches. The argument the Nuggets needed a G League squad somewhat fell on deaf ears because of their recent success with players like Monte Morris, P.J. Dozier and Bol Bol. But if that’s the baseline, imagine what value the Nuggets might glean when they have the advantages of a talent pipeline.

Who will be the third-best Nuggets player in the playoffs?

— @MiroslavCuk

In the 16 games since Murray went down, there are three players who have played over 500 total minutes. They are Jokic, Porter and Facundo Campazzo. The next closest is Aaron Gordon, who’s played 385 minutes. After that, it’s Rivers at 359. Campazzo may not be the team’s third “best” player but he may be their third-most important one in the postseason. He’s going to play, he’s likely going to start and he’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton. Given his big-game experience in Europe, there is some level of confidence that he won’t be fazed by the postseason. Campazzo can play. His 95 assists (to only 27 turnovers) are second only to Jokic over the last 16 games.

I think Campazzo will have moments, be it a steal or a clutch 3-pointer or drawing a charge. I also think Gordon’s going to be invaluable on defense, particularly if they face the Mavericks. Does that vault him to “best”? I’m not sure. I think if Rivers, Gordon and Campazzo can hit open 3-pointers, Denver’s ceiling gets significantly higher in the playoffs.

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Do the Nuggets still trade for Aaron Gordon if Murray injures his knee before the deadline?

— Matt, Mt. Sunflower, Kansas

This was one of the first thoughts I had after processing Murray’s injury. The Nuggets probably never would’ve made the deal they made had they known Murray was going to get hurt. They never would’ve pushed their chips to the center, making a “win-now” move when their shot at a championship took a major hit. Furthermore, R.J. Hampton would’ve had a clear path to develop, and the Nuggets would’ve likely been much more reticent to move him. The answer is no. There is a lesson, though. Championship windows aren’t guaranteed. When there’s an opening, teams that are serious about winning have to seize the chance. You can’t blame the Nuggets for trying.