Could Michael Toglia be Todd Helton’s long-awaited heir to fill Colorado’s black hole at first base?

Interesting piece by Kyle Newman from The Denver Post talking about some important happenings for the week. Kyle Newman recently published the article and I thought it was a great post for publishing on this website.

When Andres Galarraga left the Rockies in free agency ahead of the 1998 season, Rockies fans wondered how the team would replace the “Big Cat.” Their concerns were eased quickly.

“When Andres left to go to Atlanta, I had tried to re-sign him, but we also had this kid named (Todd) Helton in Triple-A that we felt was ready if we didn’t sign Andres,” former Rockies general manager Bob Gebhard said. “Everybody said Helton wouldn’t be as good of a fielder or a hitter. Well, after 17 years, it turned out he was pretty damn good.”

Now, Rockies fans are still wondering if anyone will come along and fill Helton’s shoes. Specifically, can Michael Toglia — the club’s highest-ranked infield prospect who’s currently in Class-A Advanced — be Helton’s long-awaited heir?

It’s a big ask that Toglia said “crosses my mind maybe a little” as he eyes a second-half promotion up the minor-league ladder.

“I definitely want to be that guy, but that time is not now,” Toglia said. “But, I feel like it’s coming soon. … The goal for the rest of 2021 is I want to get up to Connecticut and help the (Double-A Hartford) Yard Goats win some games at some point.”

While Galarraga and Helton set the bar for Rockies first basemen, that bar hasn’t come close to being met since Helton retired in 2013. Aside from a brief flash of consistency when Justin Morneau won the NL batting title in 2014, the position has been mostly a black hole for Colorado, both offensively and defensively.

The shadow of Helton’s legacy has “been in the mix” in Toglia’s conversations with the local media since the Rockies drafted him No. 23 overall out of UCLA in 2019.

But first, the backstory of unproductiveness that led to sky-high expectations for Toglia: Since 2016, the Rockies are last in the majors in Wins Above Replacement by first baseman at -4.0, according to Fangraphs. No other team has accumulated negative WAR at the position over that time span.

Additionally, over the past six seasons Rockies first basemen rank in the bottom third of baseball in slugging (.411, second-worst), on-base percentage (.318, fifth-worst), and fielding percentage (.992, eighth-worst).

“For a club that’s searching for offense, the Rockies could really look to that position, and they just don’t have that guy (on the 40-man roster),” explains baseball analyst and ex-Dodgers GM Dan Evans. “And defense has not been a priority at first base for the organization. Putting guys there who are defensive liabilities or newcomers to the position is an indication that the Rockies do not value first-base defense.”

Rockies’ prospect Michael Toglia homers in MLB All-Star Futures game 2021 MLB Futures Game rosters: Rockies feature three prospects Sunday at Coors Field

After Mark Reynolds started consecutive opening days in 2016 and ’17, the Rockies signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million contract to play first base, even though he had never played the position.

Predictably, that didn’t pan out, and neither did the signing of Daniel Murphy that followed, as he was mostly a second baseman before the move. The Rockies also let D.J. LeMahieu, who since has proven himself an above-grade first baseman with the Yankees, walk in free agency the same winter as they signed Murphy to the exact contract.

This year, C.J. Cron (playing on a one-year, $1 million deal) leads Colorado with 74 games at first base. Cron battled a back strain early on but was hitting .246 with 14 home runs entering the weekend. Josh Fuentes (29 games, hitting .237 with seven homers) as well as Connor Joe (10 games) and veteran Matt Adams (7 games) have backed up Cron.

“The Rockies trying to fit square pegs into round holes using Ian Desmond and Daniel Murphy at first base was a monumental folly, and one that’s been well-covered,” original season ticket holder Jim Noland observed. “Going forward, the Rockies aren’t doing anything this year, so if I was (interim GM Bill Schmidt) I would trade C.J. Cron and see what you have in Fuentes and Joe.”

That’s where Toglia comes in. For baseball insiders who see Fuentes and Joe as “Quad-A players” — with Joe’s bat-to-ball skills giving him more upside as a bench bat than Fuentes — Toglia is the organization’s next great promise at the position, a potential long-term solution even if he’s a few years away from making it to Coors Field.

In 67 games with Class-A Spokane in 2021, Toglia is slashing .238/.338/.437 with 12 homers and 50 RBIs. The 6-foot-5, 225-pound switch-hitter also already made a big splash on the national stage by homering at the MLB Futures Game at Coors Field earlier this month.

Spokane manager Scott Little said Toglia’s “talent is there to be (an everyday big-leaguer) as long as he continues to progress and improve.”

“He’s going to be a Gold Glove first baseman, and he’s got power to all fields from both sides,” Little added. “He keeps getting better every day. One thing we charged him with was to not worry about his batting average but to just keep improving… because based off what we’ve seen, in two or three years there’s a good chance he’ll be (at Coors Field).”

The other top prospects who are candidates to be Colorado’s every day, slugging first baseman down the line are Colton Welker and Grant Lavigne. Welker, currently on the restricted list for a PED suspension, is the most major-league ready but he’s mostly played third base. Lavigne, Colorado’s No. 12-ranked prospect, is with Class-A Fresno.