Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
Hey Patrick, as always, appreciate your continued great writing!
My question is about the Hall of Fame voting. You wrote a great column last month about Todd Helton’s candidacy. Already in early vote releases, he’s picked up an additional six votes vs. 2019. While it’s clear that he won’t make it this year, if things go well, he might break 50%. Have you talked recently with your fellow baseball writers about their thoughts on his candidacy, and if Larry Walker’s vote for induction last year affected their views? Or is there an increasing appreciation of advanced metrics, or something else? Thanks!
— Ron Anderson, Denver
Hey, Ron, thanks for the compliment and thanks for reading.
I think your prognosis regarding Helton is pretty accurate and breaking 50% in 2021 is possible. But reaching the magic 75% threshold is a different matter.
Talking with other writers, and reading their opinions as well, I’ve received mixed messages regarding Helton. I get the sense that a lot of writers, particularly those on the East Coast who didn’t not see Helton play very often, view him as a very good, perhaps even great player. But they don’t think he’s a Hall of Fame player. So it’s going to be an uphill road for Helton to make it to Cooperstown.
Yes, I do think Walker’s election into the Hall of Fame opened the door a bit for Helton by reducing some of the Coors Field stigma.
The use of advanced metrics as a Hall of Fame barometer cuts both ways. And those who support Helton’s bid for induction (such as myself) and those who oppose it, will pick and choose their numbers to state their case. That’s how it works these days.
I would suggest you read Jay Jaffe’s analysis of Helton. I think it’s fair and incredibly in-depth.
Here is an example:
By OPS+, Helton doesn’t stand out quite as much. For example, he had five top-10 appearances in OPS+ (three of them in the top five), and his career mark of 133 is excellent, but not world-beating. He trails 14 of the 21 enshrined first basemen and is tied with another (Orlando Cepeda) and ranks last among the aforementioned 19 .300/.400/.500 hitters, eight points behind the two players tied for 17th, Walker and Chipper Jones.
If that’s the bad news, the good news is that Helton’s longevity was worth something in this context, even given his end-of-career struggles. His 424 batting runs, the primary offensive component of WAR, is 14th among all first basemen, only nine of whom are enshrined.
And this is how Jaffe sums up the case for Helton: “Like Walker before him, Helton’s supporters are going to have to stick around for the long haul. He won’t face anything close to the same crunch for space on the ballot as Walker did, either this year or in the next few, but his case also isn’t quite as strong. One way or another, this isn’t going to happen overnight.”
What are the current odds (your guess) that both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are on the Rockies for the 2022 season?
— Kent, Greeley
Kent, my guess (I hope it’s educated) is that the chance is very slim that both players will suit up for the Rockies in 2022. As I’m sure you know, Story is set to become a free agent after 2021 and he’s going to be a popular target. Arenado’s career in Colorado remains in limbo, which I explored in a story in Wednesday’s Denver Post.
If Arenado is traded, I could see the Rockies attempting to sign Story to a long-term deal before he becomes a free agent. If Arenado is still on the team in 2021 and he accepts that he’s in Colorado for the long haul, I think Story is gone.
So, Patrick, what do you think the Rockies’ MiLB system will look like in 2021? Thanks!
— Renee Dechert, Powell, Wyo.
Hey Renee, I answered this question, as best I could, in last week’s mailbag. I’ll repeat my response here:
“I asked farm director Zach Wilson to address your question and he said he didn’t want to comment until final decisions have been made.
As I’m sure you are aware, the Grand Junction Rockies are no longer Colorado’s rookie-league team, having become an independent team in the revamped Pioneer League.
I’m pretty sure that Triple-A Albuquerque will remain the Rockies’ highest-level farm team, but after that, nothing is certain. There have been reports that the Rockies will have their Class-A Advanced team moved to Fresno, Calif., and drop Lancaster but that’s not a certainty.
I believe the Rockies will stay tied to Double-A Hartford and Class-A Asheville, but that’s not a certainty. Major League Baseball is trying to “regionalize” minor league teams.”
Do you think with David Dahl being let go we will see more of the Josh-Fuentes-in-the-outfield experiment or will they just roll with him at first base. Or neither?
— Michael Wade, Mission Viejo, Calif.
Michael, as it stands now, Fuentes is the favorite to start at first base. Is he Colorado’s long-term solution at first base? As I noted in a recent story, that remains to be seen.
Personally, I would love to see him thrive and have a great career because he’s the kind of guy you root for and hope succeeds.
The Rockies have toyed with the idea of using Fuentes in the outfield and they might experiment with that during spring training, but I think of him primarily as a first baseman and secondarily as a third baseman.
Are general manager Jeff Bridich and owner Dick Monfort aware of how bad they’re alienating their fans? I’ve been a fan since 1993 and have never been so disinterested in this team.
— Corey, Tucson, Ariz.
Corey, I’m sure they are aware that fans are disgruntled. They have to be.
Two losing seasons – not just losing seasons but bad baseball during those two seasons — have soured many Rockies fans. That’s what losing does, regardless of what franchise in being talked about.
I also think fans who play close attention to the team are understandably frustrated by moves that backfired: spending $106 million for a bullpen that turned out to be far from super; giving Ian Desmond a five-year $70 million deal with little to show for it; signing Daniel Murphy for two years and $24 million only to see Murphy turn into a huge disappointment; and not attempting to re-sign DJ LeMahieu, who went on to shine with the Yankees after signing a two-year, $24 million deal.
I will say, however, that I’m certain that a lot of Rockies fans will return to Coors Field when the pandemic ends. While working on a project about COVID-19 and its impact on sports, I heard from a lot of fans who are eager to get back to rooting for the team.
Assuming nothing changes with the roster, who slots into the fifth rotation spot?
— Aaron, Emporia, Kan.
Aaron, from top to bottom, this would be my rotation for 2021: Right-hander German Marquez, right-hander Antonio Senzatela, lefty Kyle Freeland, right-hander Jon Gray and right-hander Ryan Castellani.
Castellani, obviously, has a lot of growth ahead of him, but if Gray can rebound, the Rockies’ rotation looks relatively solid.
I’m excited to see lefty Ryan Rolison make his big-league debut. He’s only reached the high-A level but he impressed in summer camp. I think we’ll see him in 2021.
Patrick, I hope things are well with you. It seems like the Rockies’ downfall began with Jeff Bridich not re-signing DJ LeMahieu. Ever since, the team’s just been tumbling down flights of stairs to the basement.
But my question isn’t about DJ — it’s a foregone conclusion he would have been amazing. My query is about guys like Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez. Parra became the Nationals’ spark plug with his lighthearted clubhouse presence. That whole “Baby Shark” thing made him a sweetheart with the fans, too. And just having CarGo around for his veteran experience and Nolan Arenado’s running mate goes a long ways. Do you think the Rockies would have made a run at the playoffs in 2019 if they kept both those guys? If they did, Nolan Arenado probably wouldn’t be so disgruntled.
— Phil, Longmont
Phil, no I don’t think the Rockies would have made the playoffs in 2019 with CarGo and Parra on the roster. Colorado’s pitching in 2019 was a disaster and no amount of spirit in the clubhouse would have made up for that. And let’s face it, the time was up for both CarGo and Parra in Colorado and it was time to move on.
Arenado’s beef had little to do with losing CarGo. He wanted the team to make bold moves to improve the team after success in 2017-18. His quarrel is with the front office and I don’t think CarGo would have soothed those hard feelings.
Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders with the latest installment of his Rockies Mailbag.
Pose a Rockies — or MLB — related question for the Rockies Mailbag.
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