If Broncos quarterback Drew Lock needed a personal to-do list for the season’s final four games, coach Vic Fangio delivered it after Sunday’s loss in Kansas City.
“Just to need to make good throws, good plays, good reads, run the offense from the start of the huddle to the line of scrimmage,” Fangio said when asked about what he wants to see from Lock. “We’re not always spot on right there and we need to be.
“I think Drew has got it in him and we’re going to keep working with him on that.”
Fourteen starts into his NFL career, Lock’s goal for the final month should be three-fold: Stay healthy, show noticeable improvement and be a factor in the Broncos winning games.
To that end, Lock can point to many areas for improvement, including these four:
Interceptions
Where he ranks: Lock’s 13 interceptions are second-most in the NFL, behind only Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz (15), who was benched for rookie Jalen Hurts on Tuesday.
Lock has at least one interception in seven consecutive games, the league’s longest current streak. His interception rate of 4.4% is highest in the NFL by a long shot. Next are the New York Jets’ Sam Darold and San Francisco’s Nick Mullens at 3.7%.
“We’ve got to cut down on the interceptions, obviously,” Fangio said.
How to fix it: This is problem area No. 1 for Lock, and Fangio is right.
Lock’s first interception against Kansas City was careless — on the move, avoiding pressure and forcing a throw to tight end Troy Fumagalli.
Lock’s second interception came on the Broncos’ final snap — fourth down and in desperation mode.
It’s the flow-of-the-game turnovers like the first interception that need to be curtailed. There’s nothing wrong with a throwaway, even on third down. Lock has five first-half interceptions, including opening-drive giveaways against Miami and Kansas City.
Third down passing
Where he ranks: Lock is 43-of-86 passing for 553 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions on third down this year.
Lock’s 64.0 rating is 24th out of 25 quarterbacks with at least 75 third-down passes, ahead of only Arizona’s Kyler Murray (61.4) and just behind Seattle’s Russell Wilson (66.4).
How to fix it: Stay out of third-and-long. In the last four games, Lock has attempted 43 third-down passes and achieved 18 conversions. Some of his success on third-and-manageable:
*Atlanta: Lock converted a third-and-2 (nine-yard touchdown to receiver Tim Patrick) and two third-and-3s (nine yards to receiver KJ Hamler and three yards to receiver DaeSean Hamilton).
*Las Vegas: Lock converted a third-and-7 (11 yards to Hamler).
*Miami: Lock converted a third-and-2 to Hamler for 16 yards.
*Kansas City: Lock had throws to convert a third-and-3 (tight end Noah Fant five yards) and two third-and-7s (Fant 37 yards and eight yards to receiver KJ Hamler).
“I think converting the third downs (Sunday) night showed (improvement) a little bit,” Fangio said.
Third-and-manageable situations give Lock other options, chiefly a quick throw for the first down or, if the first read isn’t there, a check-down/dump-off throw near the first-down marker.
Downfield passing
Where he ranks: Yikes. Last … and it’s not even close. According to Stats, Inc., on passes of at least 21 “air” yards, Lock is 9-of-49 passing (18.4%) for 338 yards, four interceptions and no touchdowns.
Lock’s rating of 21.9 on these passes is worst in the league; Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady is the next-worst at 52.9.
How to fix it: The easy answer would be to stop throwing downfield so often, but a dink-and-dunk strategy isn’t a sure-fire route to winning, either.
Against the Chiefs, Lock threw 26 “air” yards to Fant for a 37-yard gain (well-placed pass) and hit Patrick on an over route for 21 (20 “air” yards).
Big pass plays set up touchdowns, so the Broncos shouldn’t abandon the downfield attempts completely.
Involving running backs
Where he ranks: Only 34 of Lock’s 296 attempts and 20 of his 164 completions have been to running backs this year.
The target rate of 11.5% is 38th out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 overall pass attempts (Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger is last at 11.4%) and the running back reception rate of 12.2% is 37th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks (Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill is last at 11.8%).
How to fix it: This is up to play-calling offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, but Lock should offer a suggestion.
Melvin Gordon had seasons 41, 58 and 50 catches for the Chargers from 2016-18, but is on pace for only 28 receptions this year.
Plays like wheel routes and screens would allow Gordon and running back Royce Freeman (remember him?) to get into the open field and gain extra yards.
Overall, is Lock on audition for 2021? Sure he is, but so are numerous other players on the roster who are under contract for next year and beyond. The goal for Lock — take the improvements he feels he’s making in the film room and practice field to Sundays.
“I try to see (things) better and better each week,” Lock said after the Kansas City game. “Feeling the game, dealing with what these defenses are doing and how they’re trying to stop us — definitely further along and feel better than I did a year ago.”
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