*** The Pac-12 Hotline newsletter is published twice a week. (Sign up here for a free subscription.) This edition, from Dec. 8, has been made available in archived form and was updated on the morning of the 11th.
Boulder-Sized Problem
The top story in the Pac-12 this week — check that: the most combustible story in the Pac-12 this week — is the potential for Colorado to be denied a chance to play for the conference title even if the Buffaloes are undefeated.
Based on our report on Monday, the Pac-12 apparently has no plans to rework the division tiebreakers or the format for determining the championship game participants.
With a win over Utah — that game is Friday, by the way — the Buffaloes would be 4-0 in conference play.
Their record in the division (3-0), however, would be worse than USC’s (4-0) if the Trojans defeat UCLA.
Without a head-to-head result, the Trojans would advance based on division record.
Colorado would be left home while a one- or two-loss team from the North played for the championship.
And that would all come as a result of the Buffaloes having two games canceled (ASU and USC) because of COVID issues with their opponents.
They would have been healthy enough to play each week and won all the games they played but not be given a shot at the title.
Why not change the rules and allow the teams with the best records to play for the championship, regardless of division affiliation?
The conference office responded to that very question:
“Prior to the start of the football season, the Pac-12 Conference established a 2020 schedule and related tie-breaking protocol … (that) were developed in consultation with, and approved by, Pac-12 athletic directors. We are following this agreed upon schedule and tie-breaking protocol.”
The Hotline report sparked a range of reaction on Twitter and elsewhere, and many fans have clearly missed the crux of Colorado’s case.
So allow us to provide some context …
— Yes, there is a better-than-decent chance the results will make all of this moot by Saturday night.
But the situation required resolution this week, before Washington and Oregon took the field.
If they weren’t necessarily playing for a berth in the title game, they had a right to know that ahead of time.
— The argument that division winners must advance because they have always advanced is hollow.
Until 2020, the Pac-12 hadn’t started its regular season on Nov. 7, either.
It had never played a conference game at 9 a.m. on a Sunday.
Precedent doesn’t apply in 2020.
— The conference’s explanation for not changing the policy — that it was agreed upon, and approved by, the schools — is flimsy.
Why? Because it has already reversed course, twice:
The presidents originally voted to postpone the season until 2021, then approved a November start.
They originally banned non-conference games, then approved them.
If you’ve rewritten policy twice, why not a third time?
— If Colorado and USC win this weekend, they likely will be the Pac-12’s highest-ranked teams come championship weekend (Dec. 18-19).
Two undefeated, ranked teams squaring off for the title would create a more compelling matchup — especially with the surrounding hullabaloo — and give USC more propulsion potential to climb in the rankings.
The Hotline’s official position is multi-layered:
1) The Buffaloes have every right to be frustrated.
Assuming a victory this week, they would be denied a chance to win the championship because of cancellations by other teams.
In fact, Colorado and Washington are the only teams (thus far) to have two games canceled because of COVID issues with their opponents.
The conference found UW an opponent in one of those instances (Utah), but the Buffaloes weren’t given a makeup game and had to schedule San Diego State instead.
They are the only team with a net loss of two conference games because of cancellations by their opponents.
2) The problem … the real problem … is the protocols themselves.
They were crafted long before opening weekend — back when the conference office, the medical advisors and the athletic directors and coaches were confident that daily testing would limit the number of cancellations.
Yes, there are caveats to account for the loss of games. But if you look carefully, the specifics break down quickly against a backdrop of massive disruption — especially in regard to the situation currently facing the conference:
The lack of a head-to-head matchup between teams that tie for the division title.
(We noticed a flaw in that process immediately.)
In our opinion, it’s all entirely understandable. It’s nobody’s fault. Chaos in some form was inevitable.
Circumstances change quickly with COVID and college football.
But the harsh reality is that with a certain combination of results this weekend, the Pac-12 will come face-to-face with an unseemly, and unfair, outcome. — Jon Wilner.
Hot off the Hotline
• The ‘Saturday Night Five‘ reaction column took aim at the looming chaos in each division and what would be required for there to be no division-winner format. (Hint: a spate of cancellations this week.)
• My AP football and basketball ballots are available for your perusal (and mockery).
• The weekend wrap examined Stanford’s ability to thrive in chaos, an upset victory over COVID and the best and worst from Week Five.
• If you missed the link above, here’s the original report on the Colorado conundrum.
• ICYMI: Late last week, we published a two-part series on Pac-12 officiating. The first installment featured comments (and criticisms) from former players while the second piece took the form of an investigation into the background of David Coleman, the head of officials. Compared to his peers, Coleman’s experience doesn’t stand up.
• Previous editions of the newsletter are available in archived form.
Support the Hotline: Several Hotline articles will remain free each month (as will the newsletter), but for access to all content, you’ll need to subscribe. I’ve secured a rate of $1 per week for a full year or just 99 cents for the first month, with the option to cancel anytime. Click here. And thanks for your loyalty.
State of Affairs
• Yahoo columnist Pete Thamel on Colorado’s rise: “No one is going to throw you a parade for beating winless Arizona, but considering that Karl Dorrell got the Colorado job in late February – about two weeks before the pandemic hit – what he’s done has been remarkable. With no spring ball, a lot of Zoom and a quarterback pulled from the defensive backs room, Dorrell is a shoe-in for Pac-12 coach of the year.”
• USA Today’s latest Misery Index includes the defending Pac-12 champions. Writes columnist Dan Wolken: “(Mario) Cristobal is 24-9 overall and recruiting like crazy, so things aren’t all bad. But there have been some head-scratching losses during his three seasons … Until Cristobal starts winning all the games in which he has more talent, it’ll be hard to square the reality with the hype.”
• In his Forde-Yard Dash column, Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde picks UCLA to upset USC — “Clay Helton’s Good Luck Tour finally runs into an obstacle” — but he likes Colorado to remain unbeaten.
• CBS Sports playoff guru Jerry Palm believes USC will climb to No. 15 in the CFP rankings this afternoon and expects Colorado to sneak in, as well.
Huddle Up
(Note: The Hotline newsletter includes links to sites that could require a subscription once the number of free views has been reached.)
• Has there ever been a Territorial Cup with less combined momentum? We’re not aware of one.
• Arizona might have quarterback Grant Gunnell available. Or it might not.
• Oregon State quarterback Tristan Gebbia is finished for the season: He’s having surgery on the hamstring injured at the end of the Oregon game.
• Sean Keeler of the Denver Post wonders why it feels like Colorado is being punished by th conference. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are trying to stay focused on Utah.
• Speaking of: Utah’s defense has outplayed the offense, which wasn’t supposed to be the script for 2020.
• Cal had several key players back from COVID quarantine, and look at the result: A victory over Oregon.
• This assessment of Stanford’s wild week includes a reference to ‘Paul Blart: Mall Cop’, so how can you not click on this link.
• What is Husky football? It’s struggling against the run, for one thing.
• Oregon’s performance against Cal brought back memories of the Willie Taggart era. And that’s not a good thing.
• USC safety Talanoa Hufanga is just a tad athletic. Meanwhile, linebacker Palaie Gaoteote, a former five-star recruit, has entered the transfer portal, and safety Greg Johnson has suffered a season-ending injury.
• Strange but true: UCLA has a winning record for the first time in the Chip Kelly era.
• Washington State needs to forget and move on after a difficult three weeks and blowout loss at USC, writes the Spokesman-Review’s John Blanchette.
• 2020 has been full of surprises. This isn’t one of them: The L.A. Bowl has been canceled.
• UCLA has a new apparel partner: Nike. And specifically: Jordan Brand.
• Following our series on Pac-12 officiating, Oregonian columnist John Canzano weighed in: “A series of unqualified people were put in charge. In the end, what we’re left with is a full-blown confederacy of fools.”
Legal Affairs
• The revolutionary California law that allows athletes to profit from the use of their name, image and likeness was supposed to take effect in 2023, but the timeline has been accelerated because of the NCAA’s move to approve NIL this winter. The L.A. Times’ J. Brady McCollough reports on the development: “California has now had a chance to view the NCAA’s proposal on NIL, so the fresh state bill will have some additions that are aimed to thwart attempts by college sports’ governing body to limit the financial activity of athletes.”
Looking Ahead
What’s coming on the Pac-12 Hotline:
• Pac-12 basketball has been less-than-stellar thus far. We’ll dive into the results Wednesday in the weekly power ratings.
• Also scheduled for Wednesday: A new edition of the Pac-12 stock report — plenty of news on and off the field to asses.
• Later this week, we’ll examine an untold story tucked within the daily roller coaster that is the Pac-12’s COVID testing process.
• Showdowns and high stakes dominate the Week Six lineup. A full breakdown is coming Thursday in our picks against the spread.
The next newsletter is scheduled for Friday. Enjoy it? Please forward this email to friends (sign up here). If you don’t, or have other feedback, let me know: pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com.
*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
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